I find that betting on basketball games can be easier than trying to handicap football or baseball games. Here is my best effort at trying to explain how to bet on basketball games. It has more to do with how you bet and not who you bet on.
The Wagers Are All The Same
Wagering on basketball is gonna be a lot easier than explaining baseball because the wagers are all the same:
5 timer: $30 to win $25 10 timer: $55 to win $50 20 timer: $110 to win $100 40 timer: $220 to win $200 5-time parlay: $25 to win $65 10-time parlay: $50 to win $130 Three-team parlay: $25 to win $150 Three-team parlay: $50 to win $300 Three-team parlay: $100 to win $600 $15 three-team round robin: $45 to win $117 $20 three-team round robin: $60 to win $156 $30 three-team round robin: $90 to win $234 $60 three-team round robin: $180 to win $468In baskets I use the same theory as baseball but concentrate more on round robins and, of course, time-zone betting. Here again it is easy to use time-zone play on the weekends, but during the week there is rarely an afternoon game. If your bankroll is $100 for a given day, then here is what you should zero in on:
One $15 round robin ($45) One flat bet: ten-timer ($55)Or as an option:
Two $15 round robins ($90) Three-team parlay: five-timer ($25)The important thing is setting your bankroll up in the morning and deciding how you will break your bets down. Don’t shot the whole wad on the early games and then come back and make bets with money you don’t have available on the late games. If $200 is your bankroll on a given day:
One $20 round robin ($60) Two $15 round robins ($90) Two three-team $25 parlays ($50)Or you can use:
One $30 round robin ($90) One flat bet: ten-timer ($55) One $30 two-team parlay ($30) One $25 three-team parlay ($25)The combinations go on and on. If you use time-zone betting and wish to use a hedge off of the late-night game, that hedge is not counted as part of your cash layout. Since the hedge would only be incorporated if you had two open wins, and you made a criss-cross hedge, both bets could not lose, so there is no additional layout of money at risk.
In basketball I rarely lay a lot of points on the pros because their games tend to be closer than the colleges. The colleges are rougher. You’ll get your upsets during the year, but it is not uncommon to see for example: Connecticut blow out Rutgers 98-53, in a game where Connecticut was favored by 16 points. Colleges do have blowouts, more so than pros, so don’t be afraid to lay the wood with the college games.
In the pros, home court is a big thing. Teams like Utah, Knicks, Atlanta, Chicago, Miami, etc., run off big streaks at home. Then on the road they have trouble covering a 2-point lay at a team nine games under .500!
Go figure!
The Over/Under Factor
It is my humble opinion that betting over and unders in basketball is better than the sides. It is so darn tough to get a handle on handicapping, that the frustration of losing at the buzzer is definitely a grind on the nerves. You lay 10 points on a top-heavy favorite in hoops and sit back to watch the massacre.
Sure enough, your team jumps out to a 20-point lead and cruises right through their opponent, leading by anywhere from 15 to 28 points all along. Then with 3 minutes to go in the game, leading by 19 points, the leading coach decides to go into a stall – no, don’t ask me why. His team loses momentum, the opposition starts taking chances and little by little the lead is cut to 12 points.
Nine time-outs later, with 6 seconds to go, the losing team pops a short jumper, a jerk on your favorite team commits a foul and with no time left on the clock, the foul is made and the favorite walks away with a 9-point win. Of course, you lose by a point. You’re a genius for 39 minutes and 59 seconds but end up losing. We’ve all been there. That is why I say it is almost impossible to handicap games, when 1,000 things can happen to offset your figuring. It then comes down to betting small when losing and increasing your bets when winning. It is called money management.
With the colleges, I got away from laying 16 points or more even with a powerhouse at home versus a dog. If I do bet the sides, it is strictly with a short priced favorite versus a contending team, where home court is a consideration. I will also take a top-ten powerhouse on the road, giving 5 points or less to a good team. Then with the colleges I key on the over, as long as the number is 143 or less.
Watch the number of fouls that pile up in the final moments of these college games, as a sure “under” turns into an “over,” as the clock stops for these: “You foul, I foul, we all foul” games. Even the pros offer a better shot with the over/unders and I use “keys” to zero in on trends. The Eastern and Central divisions tend to go under, as these teams play rough and slow.
Miami Chicago Atlanta Boston New YorkThe over bets come from the Midwest and West teams, that tend to play a more wide open game:
Lakers Oklahoma City Denver Dallas ClippersOf course, these trends were for 2011, but check the year you are handicapping as to certain trends. They occur!
There Is No Edge in Handicapping
There is no edge in handicapping regardless of the amount of knowledge you have. I have a sports service that has been in operation since 1984. I think the best year I ever had was about 64 percent or 65 percent winners. That means I lost 35 percent of the games I gave out and believe me, compared to national figures, that is a fabulous winning percentage. But the fact that I knew every single thing about the players, coaches, teams, and games I bet on doesn’t give me one tiny fraction of an edge.
The point I’m trying to make is that all the stats in the world and all the so-called garbage that can be produced do not really help the game that night. I like to read some genius sport, “Duke is 28-3 versus Virginia on the road, during the regular season, when giving 11 points or less. Virginia has covered 14 of its last 14 conference games when getting 16 points or more.”
“Duke is giving 17 points tonight and my choice is—!”
I can’t for the life of me figure out how a game played in 2002 has any bearing on a game played in 2012. My advice? Go back three games, take the total number of points given up by both teams, divide that by the number of foul shots missed, add the number of charging fouls, deduct 20 percent of the total attendance at these games, multiply by 6 the number of times the announcer says this is the greatest game he has ever seen.
Add that number to the total of 3-point shots made and add in the number of commercials during the last 3 minutes of the game. Finally, put the names of both teams in a hat and flip a coin to see whether you will play first or last piece of paper pulled. You have a 50-50 chance of picking the winner. When you decide on your choice, throw it out and bet the other side. That’s how I do my handicapping and look at how good I am.
Then comes the important part – how to bet! Personally, I use round robins, small three-team parlays, and flat bets to offset the final game of an open roundy or parlay. In other words, it is the same practice I use for baseball. If I reach a point where I win three to four days in a row, I will increase the amount of my round robins gradually:
Start with $15 roundys After three winning days, go to $20 roundys After two more good days go to $40 roundys Somewhere along the line, drop back to a $20 roundy and then start back up If you hit a losing streak, stay at either $15 roundys or small $25 and $30 three-team parlays.Did you get the idea that I put more emphasis on how you bet, rather than who you bet? You noticed that, huh? Visit Betbubbles for read more about betting on sports Well golly gee, you’re finally getting to realize what gambling is all about. I’m so happy, I could cry!
